BJP Chances to Win UP Elections 2017
Question in detailWith the Chief Election Commissioner announcing the date of UP elections 2017, all the political parties have geared to vote out others in the electoral arena of India's largest state (Uttar Pradesh). There exists a widely-accepted opinion that UP Assembly elections 2017, commencing on Feb 11, are going to be a triangular contest. Among the three major political parties with possibilities to vote in are BJP, BSP and SP. Now, you would be wondering why Congress is out of the contest. Though predicting the outcome of the elections at this stage is as tough as the contest for UP is, an analysis of the status of all major parties can help us the estimate the possibilities.
Congress chances to win UP elections 2017: Well, Congress in UP is arguably the weakest among all major parties. Their vote bank is almost empty, especially in UP obviously because they lack effective leadership. And which is why Rahul Gandhi's campaign seems to have lost the expected enthusiasm. So, Congress is likely to perform even worse than how they fared earlier in Lok Sabha elections 2014 and Assembly elections 2015 in Delhi. Voting in the UP Assembly elections 2017 is a daydreaming for Congress unless they work to retain their existing support base attracting new voters. However, if Samajwadi-Congress' alliance forms, there exist a possibility that Congress can do a little batter. Besides the leadership crises, the Congress' constant decline can be associated with a variety of other factors too, such as ineffective political campaigns, inadequacy of new agenda to cope with rapidly-changing political environment and inability to attract new voters.
BJP chances to win UP elections 2017: The prospects of BJP performing well in Uttar Pradesh are higher than other parties. BJP in Lok Sabha elections 2014 got an overwhelming support from across the country, winning 73 out of 80 seats. The number of seats they won was enough to leave the other parties wondering. However, the same is not supposed to repeat by BJP in UP Assembly elections 2017 as they have to fight against some local issues pervasively prevailing in Uttar Pradesh. The performance of Modi government in the past two and a half year has been quite miscellaneous, however, not as good as expected. Apparently, Modi government has taken a number of controversial decisions with some gaining enough praise from across the country, while others receiving the wrath of the oppositions. Also, the outcome of demonetization is supposed to have a big impact on how BJP performs in UP polls whether wins or loses. So, BJP chances to win UP elections 2017 looks quite unpredictable.
Samajwadi's chances to win UP elections 2017: Samajwadi Party has done a fairly good job in the last two years or so. However, in the beginning, Akhilesh didn't use much of the power he was handed as a Chief Minister, as the remote of the party was evidently in Mulayam's hand. Recently, party struggled to sort out intra-party tussle, post which the party symbol (Cycle) was won by Akhilesh after the majority of party delegates and legislators raised their voice in his favor. Though the intra-party tussle is solved out, prospects of virtual split in the party cannot be negated. SP's traditional vote bank, which includes Muslims and Yadavs, didn't get the expected benefits from the party in the last four years. And this can come as a serious drawback for SP and can affect the prospects of SP winning the forthcoming Assembly elections in UP.
BSP's chances to win UP elections 2017: Perceptibly, Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) banks on their Dalit voters. But, the party cannot come in majority based on just Dalit votes alone. The party looks more inclined to giving all the benefits to Dalits only, which now looks an insufficient effort to vote in Uttar Pradesh. Earlier when BSP formed the government in UP, they used Dalit-Brahmin card to come in power. But, such possibilities don't exist now.
Who is likely to win UP Assembly elections and why?